Following the recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia, director of the New Jersey-based Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, wrote an article titled “‘I blew it.’ Maybe it’s time to get rid of election polls.” Essentially he said that the A-rated Monmouth Poll was significantly off in the New Jersey governor’s race and had been off in other recent elections. As a result, he suggested that maybe pollsters should stop doing election polling altogether and just stick to issue polling.
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast Murray discusses why he came to that conclusions and what a world without horse-race polling might look like. Later in the podcast, Harvard economist and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, Kenneth Rogoff, discusses the causes of recent high levels of inflation and how it’s shaping Americans’ perspectives of the economy.
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