In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew explains why one special election, like last Tuesday’s in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District, isn’t a reliable gauge of the national political environment. They also debate whether phone or online polling is a better tool for determining Americans’ views on sensitive topics like the death penalty, and they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight’s forecast models did in 2020.